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Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.

That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate

The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.

Absence of Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end lose but each side has has something to learn from the opposing positions."

Appeal for Wider Dialogue

Westminster should engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."