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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action

The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".

Nighttime Reality

As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a capability afforded by current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.

Ongoing Risks

Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.

With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The detailed framework from Washington provoked deep reactions, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.

Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, continue.

Tactical Assessments

It is easy to blame specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a assumption well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.

Divergent Views

Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.

Present Conditions

Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.

These two forces are guiding negotiations.

Summary and Prospects

It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.

While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.