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Industry experts have expressed deep skepticism regarding recent predictions that American large firms will rapidly invest tens of billions of dollars to fix the country's crumbling energy sector.

Requirement of Solid Guarantees

Lacking an solid promise of complete repayment from the Washington, experts believe multinational oil companies to proceed with significant hesitation.

“It would be premature to comment on any potential investments,” an official commented recently.

The ambitious schedule of less than a year and a half was boldly proposed. However, expert analyses suggest a longer timeline.

A More Realistic Schedule

“It’s probably going to take three years for any kind of output increase,” said an energy analyst.

He suggested energy firms would likely spend:

• Year one: Securing new government and security contracts.
• Year two: Investing in overhaul of equipment.
• Final phase: Reaching a position to meaningfully increase production.

This suggests an boost of around half a million barrels per day possibly by the end of the decade.

Appetite Compared to Willingness for Risk

Experts make a critical difference between firms' attention and their appetite to invest significantly.

“In my view their curiosity is an eight, on a range of ten. I think their appetite is a mid-range score, because there is no clarity yet.”

Seasoned observers in the region share this view. The thinking is that majors will publicly call it fantastic while actually moving with extreme caution.

The Colossal Investment Required

The required bill would be enormous. Independent analysis suggest that adding between 500,000 and a million bpd would require over $10 billion in funding over several years.

Yet, returning production to peak levels of around 2.5 million bpd could require a staggering $80 billion to $90 billion over six or seven years.

The Outstanding Issue of Federal Guarantees

The prospect of oil giants being compensated by the government has been often mentioned. Nevertheless, specific plans on this proposal have so far not been forthcoming.

The absence of a solid plan is the primary impediment for the sector's reluctance. Companies seek protection against political risk and the chance that a different president could renege on any promise.

“They must be protected from political change, that we’ve witnessed in Venezuela before.”

Ultimately, while political optimism runs high, the practical realities suggest a road of slow deliberation for any large-scale financial commitment in the country's energy industry.